The Rookie of the Year race for 2025-26 looks wide open, but as always, a few standouts emerge from the pack.
Here are the players most likely to dominate the discussion this season and have legitimate shots at winning Rookie of the Year 2025-26, along with what could make—or break—their bids.
1. Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks)
Cooper Flagg enters the season as the odds-on favorite.
Drafted number one overall, Flagg arrives with a reputation as a two-way forward who can defend, rebound, and score.
What gives him the edge: playing for a competitive Mavericks team, expected to have real minutes from Day One, plus the spotlight that comes with being a top pick.
If he lives up to expectations (and stays healthy), this could be his award to lose.
2. Dylan Harper (San Antonio Spurs)
Harper is right behind Flagg in many early projections. He’s part of a young Spurs core that’s been performing well, which gives him a chance to share the ball volume and visibility.
His skill set—scoring, passing, ability to create—is real, and if San Antonio gives him enough rope, he could push Flagg all season long.
3. Tre Johnson (Washington Wizards)
Johnson offers one of the more intriguing long-shot scenarios.
Playing for a team in rebuilding mode, he’s likely to get a lot of offensive responsibility.
That means both high reward and high risk: big scoring nights can turn heads, but inefficient games could hurt his case.
If he can stay consistent, the numbers may compensate for some of the losses.
4. V.J. Edgecombe (Philadelphia 76ers)
Edgecombe is building a case largely based on upside.
He has tools and athleticism, and while he may start off with limited touches or less glamorous matchups, there’s potential to grow into a real contributor.
His chances for ROY depend on how quickly he can adapt, especially on offense.
5. Ace Bailey (Utah Jazz)
Bailey is one to keep an eye on as a potential surprise.
The Jazz environment could be favorable—if he gets starting minutes, chances to shoot, rebound, defend—he may quietly rack up strong stats.
Not seen by everyone as the top threat, but he has the upside, especially if he becomes a consistent performer evening out the roster.
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6. Kon Knueppel (Charlotte Hornets)
Knueppel might not be the frontrunner, but he has momentum.
He won Summer League MVP and showed flashes.
If the Hornets lean on him as a scoring option or give him enough opportunity, he could be the type of dark horse who surprises people.
His scoring ability makes him one to watch.
7. Wild Cards & Dark Horses
– Walter Clayton Jr. — probably won’t win, but could cause trouble in matchups or catch fire in stretches.
– Egor Demin — plenty of hype, but his path depends heavily on how much playing time he gets and whether he delivers efficiency when called upon.
What Could Decide It All
- Playing Time & Role: Even the most talented rookie doesn’t win ROY without minutes. Who starts? Who earns trust from coach in critical moments?
- Team Success & Exposure: Rookies on winning teams or teams in playoff contention often get more attention—even if raw numbers are similar.
- Consistency vs Moments: A few explosive games are good; a stretch of reliable performances is better.
- Injury Factor: Keeping healthy all season is undervalued. Missing games or being limited can swing votes.
At the moment, Cooper Flagg is the clear frontrunner for Rookie of the Year 2025-26, backed by odds, draft status, and expectations.
But Harlem’s a long road: Dylan Harper, Tre Johnson, Ace Bailey, V.J. Edgecombe, and even Kon Knueppel have the talent to mount serious challenges.
This season’s race promises to mix hype with hopeful grind, and could reward the player who not only shines but stays dependable.
